In an earlier post, I speculated that one might use the variance between Quantcast and Alexa as a predictor for success. The basis for this was that Alexa toolbar users seem like early adopters. Another possible explanation can be found in the general feeling that Alexa users are heavily represented in Asia. Do a search on Alexa user demographics and you will find a number of blogs and forum posts suggesting this.
If this idea is correct, I think that under some circumstances, you may still view Alexa as a predictor for success since much of the growth in the population of internet users is coming from Asia.
Here’s the latest data on my Wikia watch:
According to Alexa, Wikia’s rankings were
Yesterday: 849
1 Wk Avg: 1102
3 Mo Avg: 1456
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